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Relay, Maryland Forecast Discussion

UTC / Zulu Conversion

000
FXUS61 KLWX 051448
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
948 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST BAND OF FGEN FORCING ACRS NRN MD THIS MRNG...BEST
CAPTURED BY THE NAM. ITS PROGGED TO BE GONE SHORTLY...AS THE H7-5
MOIST LYR SLIDES EWD. LTST RDR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT REALITY WL BE A
LTL SLOER THAN MDL FCST. HV FLLWD THOSE TRENDS IN POP FCSTG...YET
DIMINISHING OVERALL CVRG AS FORCING WANES. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
AFTN HRS WIL FEATURE IMPVG CONDS. A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE CLDS
CAN BE SEEN ON VSBL SATPIX SLICING DIAGONALLY ACRS PA ATTM.

IN TERMS OF PTYPE...12Z LWX RAOB SUGGESTS ALL SNW...AND SPOTTER/MTR
REPORTS THIS MRNG SUGGEST THE SAME. THEREFORE...HV TILTED FCST IN
THAT DIRECTION. BUT...TEMPS METRO DC SE HV BEEN ABLE TO WARM IN
THE RELATIVE LACK OF PCPN PAST CPL HRS. THEREFORE...HV EASE FCST
TO MORE OF A RASN MIX AS CHC POPS RTN TO DC FOR A CPL HRS TWD MIDDAY.

USED LAMP AS A STARTING PT FOR TEMPS...BUT NEEDED TO SHADE THEM
DOWNWARD INVOF BAND OF PCPN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES AND ANY RESIDUAL NWLY BREEZE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SUB-FREEZING
TEMPS TO AGAIN OVERCOME THE REGION BY THE PREDAWN HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE FOR MAX/MIN AND WIND GRIDS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES PAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY MONDAY BUT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MODELS KEEP CWFA DRY FOR NOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS
FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AM RUNING W/ VFR TAFS ATTM...AND THINK THAT WL SUFFICE OVERALL. AM
A BIT CONCERNED IN BRIEF RESTRCTIONS IAD/DCA/BWI IF FGEN FORCED
BAND HOLD TOGETHER SUFFICIENTLY. MAY ADD A CPL HR MVFR PD SHORTLY
TO ACCT FOR THAT.

OTRW...CLDS WL BE DSPTG TAFTN. CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT...LIGHTS WINDS
AND LITTLE ELSE OF CONCERN TO START OFF THE WEEK.

SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY 10-15KT WINDS TDA...THEN SWITCHING TO WLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LISTEMAA
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...LISTEMAA
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/LISTEMAA
MARINE...HTS/GMS/LISTEMAA

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion