Storm Prediction Center Forecast
No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 5 18:30:01 UTC 2012.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 5 18:30:01 UTC 2012.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST
OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH IN A DISORGANIZED FASHION.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFT ALONG A COLD FRONT PRODUCING
SHOWERS FROM NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE
VERY WEAK AND LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY.
..JEWELL.. 02/05/2012
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN STATES...
REMOVED GENERAL TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND GA. REST OF FCST
UNCHANGED.
DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE WAS IN FULL SWING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND GA AS LOW/MID-LVL FLOW HAS TURNED WLY AHEAD OF THE
SYNOPTIC CDFNT. THE DECREASING INSTABILITY AND ONLY WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE/UPR SUPPORT WILL LIMIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND GA.
FARTHER S...COMPARATIVELY RICH LLVL MOISTURE WAS PRESENT OVER MUCH
OF FL. SEABREEZE/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LLVL BUOYANCY
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSTMS OVER NRN/CNTRL FL THIS AFTN. NO SVR
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OWING TO MEAGER INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...UPR DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN/SCNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM...CONVECTION WAS
INCREASING OVER WRN CUBA AND THE KEYS INVOF SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL ENVELOPE SRN FL TO
LIMIT HEATING...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTM PROBABILITIES. WEAK WIND FIELDS/BUOYANCY WILL
LIMIT SVR RISKS.
...CNTRL/SRN TX...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GENERAL TSTM RISK.
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE EVENT LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TIED TO A
H25 SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAK. MAJORITY OF THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS
NOW OVER THE WRN GULF WATERS. NEW TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER
THE BIG BEND REGION...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL-END OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NRN MEXICO/SRN NM.
SPORADIC TSTMS WILL OCCUR OVER CNTRL/SRN TX THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES CONFINED TO THE BIG BEND REGION EWD ACROSS THE
SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND INTO SCNTRL TX/COASTAL BEND. ACTIVITY WILL
BE ELEVATED ATOP THE COLD DOME THAT SETTLED INTO PLACE YESTERDAY
WITH FCST MUCAPE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO PRECLUDE SVR HAIL.
..RACY.. 02/05/2012
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
VALID 051700Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
..BOTHWELL.. 02/05/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING UPPER TROUGHS IN THE NORTHEAST WILL QUICKLY EJECT
OFFSHORE...WHILE A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER MO DRIFTS TO NEAR THE
IL/IND/KY/TN BORDER. A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS INTO NRN FL OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST...A STAGNANT UPPER LOW
NEAR THE UT/WY BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
HOWEVER...THE LINGERING RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS PROGRESS TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
COAST...RESULTING IN A RELAXATION OF OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SRN CA.
...SRN CA...
LOCALIZED AREAS OF POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY ARE
ONGOING...THROUGH RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT
OFFSETTING FIRE POTENTIAL AT THE MOMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL OCCUR...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO 20S. ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED CANYONS AND
PASSES...GIVEN THE MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
..BOTHWELL.. 02/05/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PREDOMINANT BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE WEST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
TRANSITION AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS BEGIN TO PHASE OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...QUICKLY DEAMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THE
STAGNANT LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN WILL EJECT EWD...BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES SWWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ALTHOUGH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY LINGER OVER SRN CA...THE RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE MOISTURE OVER TIME...WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL
BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN THE REDUCTION OF
CHANNELING THROUGH HIGHER TERRAIN.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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Additional Forecast Information
